Edge in the News: 2017

Postimees [9.15.17]

Forecasting is not witchcraft, but learning and developing skills. To complement the original claim that [Philip] Tetlock's instructed "super-forecasters" were better than ordinary experts: some predictors were up to 30 percent more accurate than CIA analysts with access to classified information. Never underestimate the ability of the trained mind to clearly see the world.

... [Y]ou can see the edge.org seminar on the same subject area ("Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting"). Of course, the best course is to start self-assessing and to chart your predictions and evaluate performance.

Trend.sk [9.13.17]

Every year, since 1998, writer and founder of the site edge.org John Brockman asks dozens of top scientists and different personalities one question. The one in 2014 was like this:  Which idea deserves to disappear? ... [W]e might add to the idea that we should try for a self-sufficient way of life.

Even today, this idea enjoys great popularity among many people, for various reasons. Some believe that self-sufficiency will help them to more freedom and independence from many external influences. Self-sufficiency allows them to cut off from the system and gain, for example, energy or food independence. For others, the idea of ​​self-sufficiency is linked to the belief that interdependence outside of their nation or group is something that is untenable in the long run. And another reason is the belief that increasing our self-sufficiency will help solve many environmental problems.

Few ideas have been scrutinized by people as self-sufficiency. The results of these efforts clearly show that it is a bad and misguided idea that has far more negatives than positive.