This study tried to improve our ability to predict major geopolitical events. It worked. [1]

[ Fri. Aug. 21. 2015 ]

The weekend of July 30, a group of intellectual heavyweights met at a beautiful vineyard [5] in California's Napa Valley. Their agenda was modest: learn how to predict the future. ...The "class," [6] organized by Edge, was led by Philip Tetlock, a University of Pennsylvania psychologist who has made the study of prediction his life's work. For the past several years, Tetlock and his colleagues have been running a project supported by the US intelligence community. Their goal is to find ways to accurately predict major events in world affairs, such as whether Vladimir Putin will lose power in Russia.

Now they're sharing what they've found with the world.The results are astonishing: Tetlock's team found out that some people were "superforecasters" who, when placed in teams, can produce a surprisingly good track record at predicting the future of world affairs. And Tetlock thinks he might know why. ...