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2011 : WHAT SCIENTIFIC CONCEPT WOULD IMPROVE EVERYBODY'S COGNITIVE TOOLKIT? [1]

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Contributors [ 167 ] [3]   |   View All Responses [ 166 ] [4]

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[6]
John Allen Paulos [6]
professor of mathematics at Temple University
A Probability Distribution

The notion of a probability distribution would, I think, be a most useful addition to the intellectual toolkits of most people.

Most quantities of interest, most projections, most numerical assessments are not point estimates. Rather they are rough distributions — not always normal, sometimes bi-modal, sometimes exponential, sometimes something else.

Related ideas of mean, median, and variance are also important, of course, but the simple notion of a distribution implicitly suggests these and weans people from the illusion that certainty and precise numerical answers are always attainable.

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Links:
[1] http://www.edge.org/annual-question/what-scientific-concept-would-improve-everybodys-cognitive-toolkit
[2] http://www.edge.org/inthenews/what-scientific-concept-would-improve-everybodys-cognitive-toolkit
[3] http://www.edge.org/contributors/what-scientific-concept-would-improve-everybodys-cognitive-toolkit
[4] http://www.edge.org/responses/what-scientific-concept-would-improve-everybodys-cognitive-toolkit
[5] http://www.edge.org/print/response-detail/10072
[6] http://www.edge.org/memberbio/john_allen_paulos