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Home > FORECASTING FOX
[3.21.13]
Topic:

In 2006, Philip E. Tetlock published a landmark book called "Expert Political Judgment." While his findings obviously don't apply to me, Tetlock demonstrated that pundits and experts are terrible at making predictions. …

… Tetlock is now recruiting for Year 3. (You can match wits against the world by visiting http:www.goodjudgmentproject.com.) He believes that this kind of process may help depolarize politics. If you take Republicans and Democrats and ask them to make a series of narrow predictions, they'll have to put aside their grand notions and think clearly about the imminently falsifiable.

[ED NOTE: See: "How To Win At Forecasting: A Conversation with Philip Tetlock" on Edge http://bit.ly/14aZrqQ]

FORECASTING FOX [1]

Related Content: 

HOW TO WIN AT FORECASTING [2]

News From: 

The New York Times
David Brooks, OpEd Columnist
Read the full article → [3]
[ Thu. Mar. 21. 2013 ]

In 2006, Philip E. Tetlock published a landmark book called "Expert Political Judgment." While his findings obviously don't apply to me, Tetlock demonstrated that pundits and experts are terrible at making predictions. …

… Tetlock is now recruiting for Year 3. (You can match wits against the world by visiting http:www.goodjudgmentproject.com [4].) He believes that this kind of process may help depolarize politics. If you take Republicans and Democrats and ask them to make a series of narrow predictions, they'll have to put aside their grand notions and think clearly about the imminently falsifiable.

[ED NOTE: See: "How To Win At Forecasting: A Conversation with Philip Tetlock [5]" on Edge http://bit.ly/14aZrqQ] [6]

Links:
[1] http://www.edge.org/news/forecasting-fox
[2] http://www.edge.org/conversation/how-to-win-at-forecasting
[3] http://nyti.ms/YJcTKD
[4] http:www.goodjudgmentproject.com
[5] http://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock
[6] http://bit.ly/14aZrqQ]