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Taking all three points together, my advice is
to stimulate optimism by making a bold move turning America's focus
from its negative role in war brinkmanship to a positive role as a leader
who stands for peace, freedom and economic growth.
Jordan
Pollack
Dear Mr.
President,
In the
mad hysteria of the moment, when all your intellectual resources are
focused on finding someone in the Middle East to play Tit for Tat, whether
Osama, Saddam, or Abu Nidal, I would remind you of some common sense
truths about the complex dynamics of living systems.
First:
Punishment doesn't work.
We know
that beating a child doesn't make them peaceful, it makes them more
violent.
We know
that exercise doesn't make you tired, it gives you more energy.
If you
have dandelions growing in your lawn, would you selectively blow their
heads off or fertilize the lawn to choke out the weeds? Each dandelion
you crush results in many more next year, while a stronger lawn resists
their invasion.
The moral
of this story is that striking back at terrorists may merely create
more terrorists, while engaging the people in peaceful commerce inhibits
terror.
Second:
You can bet your last nickel that masses are fickle.
The mass
coherence which supports your initiatives can turn on a dime. Spending
$200B on war will cause severe "buyers remorse" when the people realize
they bought nothing but national debt, a mess in Iraq, and higher prices
for oil.
Third:
Optimism is necessary.
Optimists
behave different than pessimists. They buy more, invest more, take risk
for future gains, and work harder. One doesn't have to be a genius to
realize that the threat of continual war, while enhancing power, leads
to economic woes because investors and consumers are uncertain. While
oil profits may rise, all the rest of our modern industries, from Airlines,
to Investment Banking, Telecommunications, Software and Chips will continue
to collapse. To end the depression, the country needs optimism about
economic growth driven by expectations of peace and stability.
Taking
all three points together, my advice is to stimulate optimism by making
a bold move turning America's focus from its negative role in war brinkmanship
to a positive role as a leader who stands for peace, freedom and economic
growth.
Jordan
Pollack
Professor of Computer Science
Brandeis University
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