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![]() HP/D — Germany February 20, 2009 Die Neuen Atheisten ES IS ALLES WAHR
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Everything Will Change This collection of answers, which, as did its most recent predecessors, will surely find its way to printed publication in a few months, not only serves as a precise sketch of the current state-of-the-art in future studies; above all, its separate viewpoints and differing emphases converge to weave a consistent panorama of what the near future will very probably look like. ... ...Not everything needs to turn out so well. Catastrophe was another common theme in this series of essays. It may be a hurt nature taking its revenge, or a critical increase in our already unsustainable population, or an accidental nuclear detonation that sparks the next great war. The potential collapse of our industrial civilization is a real possibility we have to live with, and the authors who decided to treat this subject would prefer us not to forget it in the midst of our optimism. Everything is changing. Or has already changed. Or won't. Or it doesn't matter. Change, as another group of authors pointed out, is in the eye of the beholder, and what "changing everything" means depends as much on our concept of "change" as on our concept of "everything." The next radical change to come may imply a redressing of the same old trends and values, or a complete reengineering of our way of life; and "everything" can mean the cultural climate of our time as well as the very fabric of existence. Change is natural, and is always occurring. And the selection made by the Edge Foundation for this year is an excellent and absorbing anthology of the best informed judgments on what is to come. |
PREDICTING THE FUTURE IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT THE future is radically unpredictable. It’s unpredictable because we can only track change. We can’t predict futures. Humans can do a little better than other species in predicting futures, but because of the rate of change of technology in human society, constantly throwing out new problems because of the complexity of the social changes that are occurring, then predicting the future becomes extremely hard. "That is why I say in many respects it’s radically unpredictable. What I do insist is that we have the freedom to make choices about it … but we don’t have infinite flexibility in making those choices …we are constrained by our evolutionary past, by our biological givens — none of us can walk on water, any more than we can grow wings." Steven Rose in The two Steves debate "Towards the end of the 19th century, the famous physicist William Thomson, more commonly known as Lord Kelvin, proclaimed the end of physics. Despite the silliness of declaring a field moribund, particularly one that had been subject to so many important developments not so long before Thomson’s ill-fated pronouncement, you can’t really fault the poor devil for not foreseeing quantum mechanics and relativity and the revolutionary impact they would have. Seriously, how could anyone, even someone as smart as Lord Kelvin, have predicted quantum mechanics?" Lisa Randall, Physicist, Harvard University "I used to think you could … In Profiles of the Future, Arthur C Clarke made it seem so easy. " And so did all those other experts who confidently predicted the paperless office, the artificial intelligentsia who for decades predicted ‘human equivalence in 10 years’, the nanotechnology prophets who kept foreseeing major advances toward molecular manufacturing within 15 years, and so on. "Mostly, the predictions of science and technology types were wonderful: space colonies, flying cars in everyone’s garage, the conquest (or even reversal) of ageing. (There were of course the doomsayers, too, such as the population-bomb theorists who said the world would run out of food by the turn of the century.) "But at last, after watching all those forecasts not come true, and in fact become falsified in a crashing, breathtaking manner, I began to question the entire business of making predictions. "And then I finally decided that I knew the source of this incredible mismatch between confident forecast and actual result. The universe is a complex system in which countless causal chains are acting and interacting independently and simultaneously (the ultimate nature of some of them unknown to science even today). "There are in fact so many causal sequences and forces at work, all of them running in parallel, and each of them often affecting the course of the others, that it is hopeless to try to specify in advance what’s going to happen as they jointly work themselves out. "Formerly, when I heard or read a prediction, I believed it. Nowadays I just roll my eyes, shake my head, and turn the page." Ed Regis, Science Writer, from an article at www.edge.org |
By Carlos Silber If Darwin abused and wore the act of observing (and write in their journals hiperdetallistas), Einstein won his fame in 1919 when their predictions (encapsulated in the Theory of General Relativity) coincided with the facts: the comments made during a total eclipse Sun had shown that the light is diverted to pass near a massive body. Prediction is often seen as the most valued scientific tool, able to quell that uncertainty and allow the moment to act with foresight. Many use it with restraint and other abuse it. ... Scientists hate the hard but closely admire his vision extended. So when John Brockman, editor and head of the U.S. site of the agora Edge.org, on the forefront of science, found the question with which every year since 1998, takes the temperature to contemporary thought, biologists, physicists, chemists and all kinds of intellectuals of the "third culture" was flooded with mail box, a resounding "yes, and give you my answer." "What Will Change Everything: What game-changing scientific ideas and developments do you expect to live to see?", asked Brockman this time, who received 151 bright, optimistic, pessimistic, short, long, cryptic, theoretical as well as surprisingresponses — which in this custom-Radar, are condensed below: [ED. NOTE: Feature article features the following contributors: Kevin Kelly, Steven Pinker, Freeman Dyson, Ian McEwan, George Dyson, Karl Sabbagh, Richard Dawkins, Zeilinger, Douglas Rushkoff, David Eagleman, Steve Nadis, Brian Eno, Craig Venter, Sherry Turkle, Marcel Kinsbourne] ... |
EL PERIODICO DE CATALUNYA — Spain January 29, 2009 ¿THIRD CULTURE? Two Victorian gentleman, back in 1875, engaged in an entertaining polemic about the superiority of science or the humanities. TH Huxley disregard the study of the classics as Matthew Arnold was mofaba of evolutionary theory, both with similar intellectual occlusion. The rifirrafe was repeated in the late fifties when CP Snow, a physicist and novelist, denounced the chasm separating the "two cultures", the scientific and literary, and ran a way of understanding something of an unequal alliance of civilizations among scientists that are moving steadily towards the future and some intellectuals that carry the weight of the past. That alliance was hot air and Snow is to step out of an angry guardian letters FR Leavis who encouraged the cotarro. Now things are clearer and Leavis draws the wrath of nostalgic sympathy for the old junk. The narrow plume of people with scientific knowledge has been hard to crack, so that even in the nineties, John Brockman returned to the burden by advocating a "third culture", resulting from the reconciliation of science and letters. But this third culture, such as the Edge of Brockman have slipped on the thick skin of the writers alone, and has been echoed in the scientific community, increasingly concerned by spreading its activities. All this brings me to remember the neuroscientist R. Douglas Hofstadter, who became famous in 1980 when he won with a fascinating book, Godel, Escher, Bach, the Pulitzer and the American Book Award. Hofstadter proposed that arises from our individual self-functioning of the mind. Although this sounds thick, the scientist who plays the piano and has translated the novel in verse Eugene Onegin by Pushkin, it has a stunning clarity that leads to deception of the reader feel smarter. Intellectual joy that can be tested in his latest book, I am a strange loop. Nostalgia with the return of the third culture in which a scientist pampers his writings as would a poet (Hofstadter does) and a passionate writer metabolize fabulous trompicones of science. ¿TERCERA CULTURA? [Spanish original] |
John
Brockman, Editor
and Publisher |
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